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Backtesting also
known as Systems Testing is the concept of taking a
strategy and going back in time to see what would
have happened if the strategy had been faithfully
followed. The assumption is that if the strategy has
worked previously, it has a good but not certain
chance of working again in the future and conversely
if the concept has not worked well in the past, it
probably won't work well in the future.
As an example, you may decide that you want to try a
Moving Average crossover such as the 8 day average
crossing a 13 day average. Enter when the 8 day
crosses up through the 13 day and cross down when
the day average crosses back down through the 13 day
as shown on the following chart:
The 8-13 moving
average crossover looks great for the above chart
but how would you go about deciding if this strategy
is still a good idea across the entire market? Other
than taking all trades that qualify and tallying the
results for the next several weeks, the only way to
decide if the approach is viable is to test it using
historical data. This is exactly what TC-Companion
does.
TC-Companion is the only Backtesting tool on the
market written specifically to work with TCNET and
TC2000 and use the same syntax as Worden Brother's
Personal Criteria Formula or PCFs. In fact you can
import your TCNET/TC2000 PCFs directly into TC-Companion
for testing.
At the end of this section, we'll tell you what the
8-13 moving average crossover would have done from
Jan 1st through March 24th of this year using the
S&P 500 Watchlist. |